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Obama's Real Change: $1 Billion, 5 Million People and Global 'Net Politics

By: Phil Noble

Publishers Note

Readers of this space know that since 1996, PoliticsOnline has had a long history of making extremely bold predictions (that usually came true) about the impact of the Internet and new technology in politics. Here are my personal predictions of what's coming now.

Full disclosure: I am an unabashed Obama supporter. As I stood on the floor of the '04 Democratic Convention, 15 minutes into Obama's speech I told a colleague, "That's the first black president of the United States and I'm committed." I also serve on Obama's South Carolina Steering Committee.

Real Change is Coming.

History has shown that when the conditions are ripe, real change can happen very quickly. Enabled by the Internet, Barack Obama is on track to affect a real change in American politics that will reverberate globally with enormous impact for years to come.

Obama's campaign is a historic fusion of the key elements of real change - the right leader, the right message, the right media and the right political environment. His campaign has fused these elements into a seamless whole, like a perfect diamond reflecting in the sunlight - no matter how it is viewed, each facet re-enforces the other.

Consider the real change to date - from a standing start 19 months ago when he announced his candidacy for president, he has created the most exciting and impressive political movement in a generation; raised more money and mobilized more people than any campaign in history; and effectively demolished the political machine of Bill and Hillary Clinton - the most skilled and effective Democratic political operation in the last 30 years...and he's just getting started.

So what's to come?

1.) Obama will win in a landslide. - Barack Obama's campaign is the perfect storm of a compelling new message for change, his life story, the country's overwhelming disgust with politics as usual and the enormous power of the Internet with its huge potential for exponential growth. In addition to the money, there are four reasons why the margin will be so big.

First, it's time. Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come, and Obama's time has come. Americans are ready for something fundamentally different in our national politics. Americans are fed up with politics as usual and the politicians who deliver it. They want to move beyond the stale divisions, the senseless partisanship and the corruption of special-interest politics. Obama represents this fundamental change.

Second, the map and the math will be different. Traditionally, the two parties analyze past election returns and focus on a dozen or so battleground or swing states and ignore the rest of the country. This time there will be at least a 30% increase in turnout among young and African American voters. To quote a black friend of mine's instructions to his grandmother, "Granny, we're going to strap your oxygen bottle to your wheel chair and you may die on the way home but you are going to go vote for Obama."

Plus, in the primaries and today, Obama has repeatedly demonstrated a cross over appeal to independents and some Republicans that is unprecedented in recent American politics.

There are now at least a dozen new states that are 'in play' as never before. Several weeks ago, I even predicted in several op-eds that Obama will carry my home state of South Carolina. I believe it.

Third, Democrats will be united like never before. Forget all the talk about the Clintons and a divided party. In order to repair the damage they have done to the Clinton brand, they will see it in their own self-interest to enthusiastically embrace and support Obama. I predict their rehabilitation performance at the Democratic Convention will make it seem like they were the ones who made Obama's historic breakthrough possible.

Fourth, Sen. John McCain will fade to become a bit player. McCain's candidacy is fundamentally flawed. We all recognize McCain as an authentic national hero for his military service to our country. But his candidacy is fundamentally flawed - the age difference with Obama is the biggest in history; most voters fundamentally reject his position on the Iraq war; and his support of the Bush tax cuts and economic policies make him increasingly vulnerable in the current deteriorating economy. Most of all, he simply lacks a clear and compelling vision of where he wants to take the country.

Just as in 1996, when Bob Dole was overwhelmed by the Clinton campaign and its thematic bridge to the 21st century, I predict that McCain is likely to fade into a bit player in the larger Obama tidal wave for real change.

Much can happen in the next three months. There will probably be another racial explosion � la Rev. Wright and probably bigger. Could Obama personally screw up big time - absolutely. Al-Qaeda may make its presence known and there are a thousand other things that could happen that no one can predict. But ultimately the outcome will likely be a big Obama victory.

I predict that Obama will win with a nationwide margin of over 55%.

2.) Obama will raise over $1 billion to fund the real change. - There are dozens of illustrations and measures of the campaign's unprecedented success, both on the ground and online. But none more impressive than their ability to raise large amounts of money online that they have in turn spent effectively in campaign operations.

On Obama's first trip to South Carolina in January of last year, I suggested to him that if he stayed hot through the general election he could raise $500 million online. He chuckled in wide eyed disbelief. I was wrong - he is now on track to surpass $1 billion.

His campaign has raised about $350 million to date from 1.7 million donors, mostly in contributions of $200 or less. With these small donors capable of repeated gifts and fueled by the white hot passion of the Fall campaign, the Obama campaign alone will probably hit at least $600 million by Election Day. Various unions have said they will spend a total of $300 million to help elect Democrats in Congress and Obama. The Democratic Party has said they will raise another $300 million and other allied interest groups and friends' combined efforts could reach another $75 million - MoveOn alone said they will do $35 million. This adds up to $1.2 billion.

I predict that by Election Day, the total raised by Obama
and friends will be over $1 billion.

3.) The real change will reach from the White House to the Court House. - So what does the Obama campaign do with $1 billion? Combining the money with their online army of volunteers - they create the financial engine to support a unified Democratic campaign for change from "the White House to the Court House."

For years the holy grail of campaigners has been this idea of a dynamic presidential candidate at the top, a compelling message that attracts independents and some Republicans, a unified campaign structure (i.e. Obama's online structure) and enough money to fund a truly national campaign down to the grassroots level. Now it is here - aided in part by the much criticized 50 state strategy that Howard Dean began implementing at the DNC in 2005.

And, it's not just the money - it's the people that are driving the Real change. Patrick Ruffini, a leading Republican online consultant, estimates Obama's total online support universe - through the campaign site, Facebook and social networks, and other political sites - is anywhere from 4 to 8 million people...and we still have the three most intense months to go. These are real live people - that can be mobilized in an instant via email - who will not only work online but many will take to the phones and streets on Election Day.

Beltway pundits are predicting Democratic gains in the Senate of 4 to 7 and in the House of 10 to 20. They are way low and the impact on state and local races will be just as big.

I predict that Obama's campaign will activate over 5 million

volunteers on Election Day and add an extra 3 to 5 points

on Democratic candidates nationwide.

4.) Obama will be the JFK of the digital age. - Through out history we've seen historic sea changes in politics when the man, the times and new technology all come together.

Andrew Jackson used the emerging western network of newspapers growing beyond the eastern seaboard and the expanding delivery network of the Post Office to spread the story of his heroic exploits in the War of 1812. Combining this new communications network with his compelling life story and common folks' desire for change - Jackson won the 1828 election and launched the age of Jacksonian Democracy.
Franklin Roosevelt began fireside chats as Governor of New York in 1929 and throughout the Depression and war years, he used over thirty evening chats to build a new electoral coalition that lasted 40 years.
John Kennedy, beginning with the Nixon debates in 1960 and continuing with live press conferences and innovative use of the television through out his Administration, essentially defined politics in the new age of television.

The Obama campaign has brilliantly understood that it is a movement they are creating and thus they have provided the online tools that the movement's supporters can use to achieve the specific tactical political goals of the campaign. But, it goes far beyond just campaigning.

"From the beginning," said Steve Hildebrand, Obama's national deputy campaign director, "Barack was hoping to launch a candidacy that would bring millions of new people into the political process, that would inspire them to stay active in politics so that, should he actually succeed in winning the presidency, he would have additional ability to govern with the backing of millions of activists from all 50 states who could help him pass the progressive agenda through Congress."

Some have said that he will be the 'Organizer in Chief' and I believe that this is a good way to think about the possibilities. Obama is fundamentally an organizer at heart and as such he believes in connecting and mobilizing mass action for social change. Who could doubt that he'll continue to use his massive online/offline army of supporters to push for change?

But, it's not just about political mobilization. We have reached a new stage of 2.0 technology development and Obama's active support of the technology will unleash public and privates sector money and empower tens of thousands of folks in and out of government to create new models and tools of civic engagement and participation. Think of how much difference it will make to have Obama - leading a generation of empowered digital natives - as compared to our present leaders in Washington who refer to the Internet as 'tubes' and 'the Google.'

We will be moving into totally uncharted territory. No one knows what will happen when we have a President who used technology to directly connect and communicate with people. With a new and compelling digital version of the "Ask not..." call to public service, Obama could actively encourage and empower potentially as many as 25 to 30% of the people in the country in new types of civic participation.

I predict that as President, Obama will use his grassroots
army to support his agenda and his presidency will unleash a veritable
explosion of new online tools, strategies
and technologies that will change the fundamental way
our government and the civic sector works.

5.) The real change will go global. - The whole world is watching - many via the Internet. Obama is now generating huge amounts of interest globally. The 200,000 people who came to hear Obama in Berlin (Reagan only got 40,000 for his speech in '87) are just the latest, most dramatic and visible illustration of what's happening all over the world.

The picture of such huge crowds abroad waving American flags instead of burning them is graphic proof that the real change is anxiously awaited globally.

People everywhere are beginning to realize that something that seemed inconceivable a few months ago may actually happen - a black man named Barack Hussein Obama whose father was a Muslim from Africa may be the next President of the United States.

And it is not just Obama's skin color and parental background that makes him different. He has a fundamentally different world view from anyone who has ever been President. He was raised in the global cultural polyglot of Hawaii; he spent four years as a formative youth in Indonesia; today his Grandmother and dozens of his cousins and kin are scattered through out rural Kenya, many living in dirt floor huts.

With John Kennedy's election, for the first time many people in the most impoverished ci2

regions of the world believed that there was someone in the White House who fundamentally cared about them and their plight. For that generation, JFK's picture was a symbol of hope and it could often be found on the crumbling walls of mud huts in the poorest parts of the world.

And now it is happening again. Obama posters in dozens of languages are spontaneously popping up in public squares and markets all over the world.

With Obama, not only do they believe that he cares about them, but he actually looks like them and truly understands their world. The DNA of Obama's world view equally contains strands of the idyllic leafy green courtyards of Cambridge and the penultimate prestige as President of the Harvard Law Review and the grinding poverty and disease of his extended family's barren dirt floor huts in Kenya.

But, it will not all be about warm and fuzzy. Recently, I was at an embassy dinner in London with a group of largely Arab diplomats. To a person, they were all very positive about the possibilities of Obama's election. I then asked the Ambassador from one of the largest Arab countries, "What will your President do when two million people turn out in the streets of your capital city to hear Obama speak and he talks about human rights, women's rights and the importance of free elections and democracy?" His broad smile quickly turned to a look of horror.

And, add to all of this the power of the global digital real change with its ability to empower people and connect them as never before. Then, the real change will really get interesting.

Just as Obama will unleash new models and tools for civic empowerment in the US, the same thing will happen globally. One small idea: think of an online global Peace Corps with a hundred million people actively working together on a daily basis to tackle the world's problems.

I predict that ultimately in the next 8 to 10 years,
the impact of the Obama presidency
coupled with thenew global digital revolution,
will have broader, deeper and more radical impact
outside of the US than domestically.

Come on now...Get real. - Am I wrong about all this? Am I guilty of 'irrational exuberance' - perhaps. But even if Obama only squeaks out a narrow election victory and only half of what I predict actually happens, we're still in for something very, very different.

I don't expect that we'll all be sitting around some YouTube version of a global digital campfire holding hands and singing Kum Ba Yah. The world's challenges will remain - we'll have bloody, senseless wars, grinding poverty in the developing world will continue and ignorance and racism will continue to exist everywhere. But, I do believe that an Obama presidency, empowered by the new technology, will make an immense and fundamental difference.

Back during the primaries, as I stood in the enormous crowds and watched as Obama campaigned across South Carolina, I was often moved nearly to tears as he ended his speeches with a challenge to us in the crowd - "Now let's go change the world."

Clearly, that is what he intends to do. I believe he will.

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